Tag Archives: finance

Nvidia Q4 2025: Revenue and Earnings Beat. Robust Demand and Growing Market, more reasonable Valuation.

March 3rd, 2025.  On February 26, 2025, Nvidia announced Financial Results for the 4th Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025, which ended on Jan 26.  Note that since Nvidia’s Fiscal Year ends in January, it is termed the Fiscal Year of the new year, even though most of the financial events included, transpired during the preceding calendar year. 

Recently the market has apparently been concerned with certain key issues.  There is a widespread interest in investing in AI compute, and adapting workflows in many industries to employ AI applications in order to boost productivity.  But there is uncertainty regarding the persistence of high levels of demand for Nvidia GPUs needed to produce AI compute. Another issue relates to whether the return on investment (ROI) on the high levels of capex required to build AI related datacenters, will justify the investment. 

We can address these issues with information contained in the commentary of CFO Colette Kress, with full narrative available on the webcast, from which I quote liberally in the following outline of financial and operating results.

Revenue for Q4 was $39.3billion, exceeding management’s outlook of $37.5B.  This was up 12% sequentially, and up 78% year over year (yoy). For the entire FY 2025, revenue was $130.5B, up 114%, yoy.  Over 88% of this was for Data Center, which reflects the demand for AI related compute. 

Data center revenue for fiscal 2025 was $115.2 billion, up 142% from the prior year. In Q4, Data Center revenue of $35.6 billion was up 16% sequentially and 93% year-on-year.

The most current GPU in production is the Grace-Blackwell, which was introduced at Nvidia GTC (GPU Technology Conference) 2024, in March 2024. Last August there had been concern among analysts with delays in Blackwell production.  The issue of inadequate manufacturing yield was subsequently successfully addressed.  Currently, this is the fastest product ramp in the company’s history, unprecedented in its speed and scale. Blackwell production is in full gear across multiple configurations for varying datacenter architectures.  In Q4, Blackwell sales exceeded management expectations. Nvidia delivered $11 billion of Blackwell revenue in Q4 to meet strong demand. Grace Blackwell systems have been installed by Nvidia for its own development efforts, as well as by other notable customers including Microsoft, CoreWeave and OpenAI. 

Datacenter revenue includes the categories of Compute, and Networking. Of Q4 Data Center revenue of $35.580B, Compute accounted for $32.556B (91.5%), with the remainder being Networking. Q4 Compute revenue jumped 18% sequentially and over 116% year-on-year. Customers are racing to scale infrastructure to train the next generation of cutting-edge models and unlock the next level of AI capabilities. 

Post training and model customization and inference demands orders of magnitude more compute than training models.  This is creating an expanding market of application specific models.  This drives continuing demand for AI compute.  The latest Nvidia GPU platforms provide markedly improved power efficiency (performance per watt) and speed response.  The company’s performance and pace of innovation are unmatched, driving a 200x reduction in inference costs in just the last 2 years.  Blackwell was architected for reasoning AI inference. Blackwell supercharges reasoning AI models with up to 25x higher token throughput and 20x lower cost versus Hopper 100. Blackwell has great demand for inference. Many of the early GB200 deployments are earmarked for inference, a first for a new architecture. Blackwell addresses the entire AI market from pretraining, post-training to inference across cloud, to on-premise, to enterprise.

CUDA’s programmable architecture accelerates every AI model and over 4,400 applications, ensuring large infrastructure investments against obsolescence in rapidly evolving market. 

Therefore, the addressable market for Nvidia’s products continues is growing rapidly. The improved performance per cost of products continues to optimize ROI for customers.  Customers can install new Nvidia hardware and enjoy continuing application software compatibility. The CUDA platform provides backwards compatibility, while supporting a wide and growing ecosystem of applications.  It is the key element providing switching costs (customers are captive to the platform) competitive advantage.  Competing chip providers cannot lure developers from the market dominating CUDA platform to their noncompatible hardware and software. 

Parenthetically, upcoming generations of GPU (Blackwell Ultra) will launch in H2 of this year, to be followed by the Vera Rubin system.  According to CEO Jensen Huang, datacenter GPU system hardware, power delivery and architecture changed considerably from Hopper to Blackwell and made the introduction of Blackwell challenging.  The system architecture does not change from Blackwell to Blackwell Ultra.  This could create an easier ramping of supply in the future, although that will be next year presumably.

Regarding valuation, in the year between Q4 FY 2024, in January 2024, and Q4 2025 in January 2025, total net revenue rose 114.2% from $60.922B to $130.497B.  Diluted EPS rose 147.06% from $1.19 to $2.94 per share.  Trailing PE fell from 50.65 to 47.92. Note that the Jan 2025 PE (at date of earnings release for Q4 2025) is less than the mean PE of 53.47 of the past decade from 2016

There was a recent drop in stock price, apparently in reaction to the revelation of DeepSeek R1 LLM. Hangzhou DeepSeek Artificial Intelligence Basic Technology Research Co., Ltd., does business as DeepSeek. It’s R1 LLM outperformed some leading LLMs created by US corporations, and was allegedly created for only $6 million, instead of the usually required hundreds of millions of dollars, using Nvidia chips which are not the most advanced available, and which are therefore permitted by US trade law to be exported to PRC.  DeepSeek “raised alarms on whether America’s global lead in artificial intelligence is shrinking and called into question Big Tech’s massive spend on building AI models and data centers.”

As we know, until this moment, analysts had been anguishing over whether the unprecedented capex expense to acquire Nvidia GPU powered datacenters, required for production of AI, would allow adequate ROI.  Now, the possibility of cheaper production appeared and provoked the reverse crisis: AI would be abundant, but there would be no need for the higher end, expensive Nvidia GPUs. Perhaps if the Communist totalitarian country had produced an LLM which was somewhat cheaper to produce, but not that much cheaper, a sort of happy medium.  Then, investors might have taken the announcement with equanimity, since improved ROI of AI would happily coexist with some easing of capex. 

The reality is, there will always be a new, cheaper, or more powerful chip, or other novel innovations in this rapidly developing industry. Some of these will improve business economics, others will not.  Zooming out to gain some perspective, it is apparent that AI will in the course of time pervade the global economy in countless ways. Demand for the required compute hardware and software shows no sign of abating and will continue for some time.  I doubt that the time has come to lower interest in Nvidia.  Nvidia dominates the market for the GPUs which are indispensable for creating AI tools.  And the accompanying , CUDA software platform contributes to the switching costs which maintain the ecosystem of application developers using Nvidia GPUs.

In view of the recent price drop exceeding a 20% discount from the 52 week high, accompanied by the reduction in PE ratio over the last year, I took the opportunity to transfer some portfolio allocation to Nvidia.  I sold a very modest portion of MSFT holdings, in the range of 2%, at a weighted average of a 6.14% reduction from its 52 week high, and likewise for Visa, which was at its 52 week high.  I bought NVDA stock at a weighted average of a 20.8% reduction from its 52 week high.  Nvidia now makes up approximately 12% of my portfolio.  I did not feel brave enough to buy more. Probably because of the issue of near term volatility. I feel safer buying smaller amounts during periods of recurrent price drops. The stock is after all, not grossly undervalued.

Amateur Investor: recent underperformance of the broad US market index S&P 500, but longer term outperformance.

Jan 10, 2025

Annualized Performance (Internal Rate of Return) of Amateur Investor portfolio at 1y, 3y, 5y and 10y (%), as of the last trading day of 2024, is shows in the table below.  Investors might be broadly grouped into those who pursue the future gains in value promised by operating businesses (stock investors), and those who prefer a formally guaranteed stream of income from asset backed securities (Bond investors).  Therefore, I am comparing portfolio performance with the average annual return of securities of interest to Stock, and Bond investors.  The S&P 500 broad US stock market index is represented by The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO).  The diversified, investment grade bond market, including US Treasury, mortgage backed, and corporate securities,  is represented by the Vanguard Core Bond Fund (VCOBX).

*note VCOBX Core Bond Fund inception was in 2016, so the provided 10-year annualized performance as of 12-31-2024 is that of the fund benchmark.

The S&P500 performed quite well in the past decade, bearing in mind that the average S&P500 return over the last 100 years is just over 10%. Meanwhile, the bond market has not performed as well.  Interests rates remained quite low in the early part of the last decade, and subsequently climbed.  In 2022, the rate of inflation rose in the US.  The Federal Reserve took measures to increase interest rates to correct this inflation. At start of January 2022, rate was 1.637%. At end of December 2022, rate was 3.879%. Bond prices therefore fell. Bond investors began 2023 with a yield not seen since 2010. The bond market did recover somewhat. Meanwhile, investors in the businesses listed in the stock market were exploring growth related to digital transformation, which had been accelerated during Covid; the new focus on AI; and amazing advances in computer chips. Most investors found these prospects more inviting than the bond yields of just under 4%.  Their renewed animal spirits raised the S&P500 index price by 24.23% in 2023, and 23.31% in 2024.

The S&P has not risen by over 20% for two consecutive years since 1997-1998,  which was a very different time from the early 2020’s ….  Come to think of it, the two epochs do share the advent of a transformative digital technology.  Then, investors were enthused over the potential of the internet to drive business reach and productivity. Today, AI is poised to transform productivity.  However clearly in the late 1990s the stock market was reaching into Mania territory, whereas I do not think that is the case currently…yet. But I digress.

Amateur Investor portfolio holdings at end of 2024 are shown in the table below.

The price returns for 2024 of Stocks in the portfolio are shown in the table below.

Amateur Investor markedly under performed the market at 1 and 3 years, and slightly at 5 years.  Microsoft makes up 47.5 % of the portfolio. Microsoft was the worst performing stock in the Magnificent 7 in 2024. Nvidia is the best performing Mag 7 stock this year, but made up only 5.4 % of the portfolio at time of purchase.  It now accounts for 9.94 % of portfolio.

The fact is, because Amateur Investor did not contain most of the Magnificent 7 companies, it did not capture their performance.  The Magnificent 7 companies’ overall strong performance was reflected in the strong S & P 500 return because they make up a significant portion of the S&P market capitalization and total return, accounting for fully 34.6% of the S&P 500 market cap as of June 2024.

There is no specific magic to the success of the Magnificent 7, it is simply a catchphrase for a group of companies which recently achieved the highest market capitalizations, and seem to be popular among investors. I find myself to be unable to heed the siren calls of trendy stock investments. I would rather understand whether and why the key characteristics of a particular business make it a candidate for my portfolio.

While Amateur Investor underperformed the broad stock market in recent years, it outperformed the S&P500 over 10 years.  This shows that the portfolio companies, which over most of that time were MSFT, V and ADBE, are able to consistently grow revenue and earnings, without regard to membership in the club of in-vogue stocks.  This is related to their competitive advantages, which include switching costs, economies of scale and network effects. The more recently added members of the portfolio, MELI, NVDA and UNH, have similar qualities which have been proven over decades of their history.

Things to be fixed:

Possibly the most significant error of this year was the failure to invest enough in NVDA.  This resulted from a lack of consistent research about promising business opportunities in the market.  I only recently learned about Nvidia’s history of anticipating, shaping and adapting to changes in its markets. It has invested massively to achieve this, over multiple decades. Thus, it has come to play a crucial role in the development of the computing power needed for modern business.  It is important to consistently maintain reading habits regarding events in the market and the portfolio companies, while avoiding being drawn into speculative gambles.

Now that Mercado Libre has declined by almost 20% from its 52 week high, I will try to raise its allocation in the portfolio to closer to 10%, in exchange for some stocks that did well this year, such as Visa.

An issue with stocks such as MELI, NVDA and ADBE is their volatility. I feel more comfortable investing a relatively smaller amount with the stock was dropped by at least 15% from its 52 week high. Otherwise the volatility can create some anxiety which must be acknowledged.

Review: The Millionaire Next Door, by Thomas J. Stanley PhD and William D Danko, PhD

Sept 28,2024. The Millionaire Next Door, by Thomas J. Stanley PhD and William D Danko, PhD, is one of the two books which revealed to me the path to building wealth. The other was of course, Rich Dad Poor Dad by Robert T. Kiyosaki.

The authors spent decades researching the socioeconomic characteristics of the affluent in the United States.  The lessons they pass on, defy popular conceptions of the lifestyle of “the rich”. They show evidence that individuals and families who are asset wealthy, do not behave the way people who are not wealthy, think rich people behave.  They summarize their discovery of this truth, in the Introduction.

“Twenty years ago we began studying how people become wealthy.  Initially, we did it just as you might imagine, by surveying people in so-called upscale neighborhoods across the country.  In time, we discovered something odd.  Many people who live in expensive homes and drive luxury cars do not actually have much wealth.  Then, we discovered something even odder:  many people who have a great deal of wealth do not even live in upscale neighborhoods. “

Continuing…

“What have we discovered in all of our research?  Mainly, that building wealth takes discipline, Sacrifice, and hard work.  Do you really want to become financially independent? Are you and your family willing to reorient your lifestyle to achieve this goal?  Many will likely conclude they are not.  If you are willing to make the necessary trade-offs of your time, energy, and consumption habits, however, you can begin building wealth and Achieving financial independence. ” The Millionaire Next Door will start you on this journey.

Following are some of my notes, to give you a taste of the wisdom contained in the book.  The book was published initially in 1996, and it is based on research done in the immediately preceding years.  $1 million in 1996 is worth approximately $2 million today $1,000,000 in 1996 → 2024 | Inflation Calculator (in2013dollars.com).  I will use the term “millionaire” as used in the book, to denote a person who is wealthy in assets, even though $1million is not what it used to be. 

Some themes emerge in the book…

Stanley and Danko found that eighty percent of America’s millionaires are first -generation rich.  They follow a lifestyle conducive to accumulating money, and possess 7 characteristics in common:

1. They live below their means

2. they allocate their time, energy and money efficiently, in ways conducive to building wealth.

3. they believe that financial independence is more important than displaying high social status.

4. their parents did not provide economic outpatient care (financial gifts from relatives, which grant free access to a purchase of interest). More on this later...

5. their adult children are economically self sufficient

6. they are proficient in targeting market opportunities

7. they chose the right occupation

The hope of the authors, is that the reader can learn to develop these characteristics in himself.  They illustrate their findings with numerous case studies and anecdotes.

Saving money with which to invest and build assets, is an important route to wealth.  Earning a high income by itself will not lead to lasting wealth.

The wealth of Millionaires is not necessarily proportional to their income.  According to the authors’ research data: “More than 70% of their neighbors earn as much or more than they earn.  But fewer than 50 % of their neighbors have a net worth of $1m or more.  Most of these millionaires’ high-income, low-net worth neighbors make the wrong assumption.  They assume that by focusing their energy on generating high incomes, they will automatically become affluent.  They play excellent offense in this regard.  Most are positioned in the top 3 or 4% or higher of the income distribution for all US households.  Most look the part of millionaires. Yet they are not wealthy.  They play lousy defense.  We have stated many times the belief of countless millionaires who have told us

“It is much easier in America to earn a lot than it is to accumulate wealth. Why is this the case?  Because we are a consumption oriented society.  The high income producing non millionaires are among the most consumption oriented people in America.

Those wealthy people who do not have an extraordinarily high income, become wealthy by living within their means.  This ability is not simply a matter of accounting.  They successfully inoculated themselves from contracting the high-consumption lifestyle that many of their neighbors adopted (see Rich Dad, Poor Dad).   Of note, it is not essential to be an entrepreneur in order to be a millionaire.  This is important, as not everyone is prepared to bear the time commitments required by entrepreneurship, that is extremely taxing on personal and family life.  The authors suggest that an income of twice the median income (the median income in the U.S. was about $75,000 in 2022) can be stewarded to achieve millionaire status.

On of the most powerful themes of the book, relates to the concept of “Economic Outpatient Care”:

Stanley and Danko use the term “Economic Outpatient Care” to denote gifts of money to family members. The gifted money may be targeted to pay for things which promote the capability of the recipient to fulfil their potential, and build assets.  On the other hand, Economic Outpointed Care may enable the recipient to avoid making the transition from consumer to investor, which I outlined in my review for Kiyosabi’s “Rich Dad Poor Dad”.  Recurrent gifts of this type, earmarked to finance a lifestyle as a family entitlement, in effect starve the recipient of the experience of personal growth, including hardship, required to become a millionaire.

The authors recount:

“America’s millionaires are more than 5 times more likely than the average household to have a son or daughter graduate from medical school, 4 times more likely to have a child who is a law school graduate. Paying for an education is the equivalent to teaching your children how to fish.  …..Some gifts have a strong positive influence on the productivity of the recipient. These include subsidizing your children’s education and, more important, earmarking gifts so they can start or enhance a business.  Many self-made millionaires/entrepreneurs know this intuitively.  “

“Conversely, what is the effect of cash gifts that are knowingly earmarked for consumption and the propping up of a certain lifestyle?  We find that the giving of such gifts is the single most significant factor that explains lack of productivity among the adult children of the affluent.  All too often such “temporary” gifts affect the recipient’s psyche.  Cash gifts earmarked for consumption dampen one’s initiative and productivity.  They become habit forming.  These gifts then must be extended throughout most of the recipient’s life. “

“Why do gift receivers have a lower propensity to accumulate wealth than do nonreceivers:

Giving precipitates more consumption than saving and investing. …

Remember, expensive homes are typically located in what we call high consumption neighborhoods.  Living in such neighborhoods requires more than just being able to pay the mortgage.  To fit in, One needs to “look the part” in terms of one’s clothing, landscaping, home maintenance, automobiles, furnishings, and so on.  And don’t forget to add high property taxes to all the other items.  Thus,  gift of a down payment, whether full or partial, can place a recipient on a treadmill of consumption and continued dependence on the gift giver.  …..

Many gift receivers in such situations become sensitive to the need for continued Economic Out Patient care.  Their orientation may even dramatically change from a focus on self-generated economic achievement to one of hoping for and contemplating the arrival of additional gifts.  Underachieving income producers in such cases find it nearly impossible to accumulate wealth.”

“What can you give your children to enhance the probability that they will become economically productive adults? In addition to an education, create an environment that honors independent thoughts and deeds, cherishes individual achievements, and rewards responsibility and leadership. Yes, the best things in life are often free. Teach your own to live on their own. It’s much less costly financially, and, in the long run, it is in the best interests of both the children and their parents. “

“There are countless examples of the inverse relationship between economic productivity and the presence of substantial economic gifts. Our own data, collected over the past twenty years, repeatedly support this conclusion. Independent of college tuition, more than two thirds of American millionaires received no economic gifts from their parents. And this includes most of those whose parents were affluent.”

“Weakening the Weak:

Here’s some food for thought: Most affluent people have at least two children.  Typically, the most economically productive one receives the smaller share of his or her parent’s wealth, while the least productive receives the lion’s share of both economic outpatient care and inheritance.” 

Perpetuating dependence by chronically doling out Economic Outpatient Care, keeps the dependent relatives weak and leads to chronic anxiety about their economic future.

Chronic recipients of Economic Outpatient Care have more fear about their economic future than do persons who independently built their own capability to build wealth.

“Typical affluent business owner shave only three major concerns (see table 3-4 in Chapter 3)

All of these are related to the federal government.  They fear policies and regulations that are unfavorable to business owners and the affluent population in general.  “

“This is because these affluent business owners have overcome most of their fears.  They have inoculate themselves from many fears by becoming completely self-sufficient.  And it was the very struggle to become economically self -sufficient that helped these business owners overcome them. “

The self-made wealthy persons possess courage to take reasonable financial risk.

“Webster’s defines courage as “mental or moral strength to resist opposition, danger, or hardship.”  It implies firmness of mind and will in the face of danger or extreme difficulty.  Courage can be developed.  But it cannot be nurtured in an environment that eliminates all risks, all difficulty, all dangers,” which is characteristically the environment in which chronic recipients of Economic Outpatient Care are raised.

“Affirmative Action, Family style

P 269. You can’t hide from adversity.  You can’t hide your children from life’s ups and downs.  The ones who achieve do so by experiencing and conquering obstacles.  Even from their childhood days.  These are the ones who were never denied their right to face some struggle, some adversity.  Others were, in reality, cheated.  Those who attempted to shelter their children from every conceivable germ in our society, never really inoculated them from fear, worry, and the feeling of dependency.  Not at all. “

“Jobs: Millionaires Versus Heirs

“P 290. What types of businesses do millionaires own? Our answer was the same one we give everyone:  You can’t predict if someone is a millionaire by the type of business he is in.  After twenty years of studying millionaires across a wide spectrum of industries, we have concluded that the character of the business owner is more important in predicting his level of wealth than the classification of his business. “

In conclusion, Stanley and Danko’s research show that lasting asset wealth is achieved by persons who build courage and ability to invest in a business or other wealth building assets. Their voyage must begin in the absence of external aid which might enable them to escape the need to build their own abilities. The decision to habitually direct funds to investment goals rather than financing a stereotypical rich lifestyle, is the determining key to building wealth.

The detailed data and case studies enable the reader to find a way of being “the millionaire next door” in their own particular way.  This book, along with Kiyosabi’s Rich Dad, Poor Dad, was seminal in revealing to me the path to relative wealth and freedom.

I hope that if more people can learn about how wealth is created, more people will realize that the path to feeling one has “enough”, satisfaction with one’s wealth, is not envy, or attempting to appropriate the wealth that other people created, as encouraged by the US Democratic Party. Rather, you can create your own wealth. And to do this, you must build or invest in something that people actually want to buy. That is, you must create value.  And value is good.

Mercado Libre, a Multinationally Diversified Emerging Market Success Story

May 10, 2024. Mercado Libre is incorporated in Delaware, USA, and therefore reports its financial statement in accordance with GAAP standards. But substantially all of its revenue, cost of revenue and operating expenses, are generated in the company’s foreign operations.  From its inception, Mercado Libre created subsidiaries diverse Latin American countries with quite diverse economies and governments.  Revenues were reported by business segments of the major national markets.  This underlines the relevance of particular characteristics of national markets to current business results. To my mind, it is striking that Mercado Libre has successfully put together a collection of operations in diverse national regulatory regimes.  From the outset, it did the work of becoming a multinational corporation.  This gives it a barrier to entry for a potential competitor who would have to negotiate the political and economic issues of diverse LATAM jurisdictions. 

One of the risks of investing in “emerging markets” is that the fortunes of a company can be held hostage to political and economic crises which can be more volatile than in more developed nations, which are governed by more established and therefore predictable institutions.  Mercado Libre has mitigated this risk by national diversification, as it were.

when one country is beset by a financial or political challenge of the type that seems to recur in LATAM, the effect may be mitigated by the geographic diversification of Mercado Libre operations.

This was in fact a worry that for some time restrained me from investing in this heroic little company.  Recent events in Argentina served to give a fuller perspective on this concern. In November 2023, inflation reached approximately 160% in the land of Malbec and Tango, and subsequently reach 277% in Feb 2024. In spite of this Mercado Libre beat earnings estimates in the first 3 quarters of FY 2023.  The only reason it missed earnings estimates in Q4 2023 was not related to bad economic news from Argentina. It was because of a tax liability originating from disputed Brazilian taxation authority, which the company took a charge on, reducing earnings for one time. The company showed it can sustain consistent strong growth and profitability overall, company in spite of economic instability in part of its geographic distribution. 

In previous years, Venezuela, one of the initial country bases of Mercado Pago, was overtaken by a Socialist regime which in effect criminalized capitalism and subjected participants to confiscatory financial penalties, including suspension of foreign exchange markets. Sadly, Mercado Libre no longer had effective control of the Venezuela business and financial activities.  The Venezuela Subsidiary was “deconsolidated” at end of 2017, a loss of $85.8 million being reported under operating expenses, as all Mercado Libre assets in the country were written off.   However, the company continued to thrive in saner jurisdictions.

This multinational, multicultural corporation engages the potential of its human capital. Mercado Libre develops and operates most software and technology in-house. Several development centers are maintained, in various countries. Development teams native to the several countries draw form their own diverse national linguistic and cultural insights when developing products for their national market.

Mercado Libre, a multinational emerging market ecommerce and fintech company incorporated in the USA, has successfully navigated the diverse economic and political landscapes of Latin America, mitigating risks through geographic diversification. Despite challenges like Argentina’s soaring inflation and Venezuela’s fall to socialism, the company has shown resilience, maintaining strong growth and profitability. Mercado Libre’s in-house development across multiple countries leverages local insights, creating a barrier to entry for competitors and demonstrating the strength of its multinational, multicultural approach.

Amateur Investor Beats S&P performance at 1y, 5y and 10y at end of 2023

 1y(%)3y (%)5y (%)10y (%)
Amateur Investor43.2821.220.1
VOO26.339.9715.6612
Brk-b15.4615.4312.7611.64
VBIAX17.583.739.617.73
Performance of Amateur Investor portfolio compared with Vanguard S&P500 index ETF VOO, Berkshire Hathaway Brk-b, Vanguard Balanced Index Fund VBIAX.

January 4, 2024. Annualized Performance of Amateur Investor portfolio at 1y, 3y, 5y and 10y (%), as of the last trading day of 2023, December 29.  Performance is compared with those of various securities of interest.  The S&P500 broad US market index is represented by the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO).  Brkb-b is the affordable Class B share of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (Warren Buffet, Chairman, CEO and President).  The conservative, traditional 60/40 stock/bond allocation strategy is represented by the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBIAX).

1-3-2024. 2023 was an eventful year, including predictions of recession; the failure of China growth to happen after the Communist regime decided to loosen up on draconian covid related lock downs; a liquidity scare in the US related to devaluation of bank assets caused by rapid rise in treasury bond rates.  Portfolio performance was poor in the first quarter. In response, I found a new investment in a sector I had hitherto avoided, but decided to reallocate some funds into United Healthcare Group (UNH). While the reallocation, as it turned out, was poorly timed in the sense that the current holdings of V, MSFT ADBE subsequently recovered wonderfully. However, UNH has a strong competitive advantage and management culture has proven itself over time, generating a top flight total shareholder return since IPO in 1984.  I will describe my approach to UNH in a separate article. This involved an innovation of the eternal company criteria.

MSFT:41%
UNH21.5%
V20%
ADBE16.28%
MELI1.17%
Cash0.02%
Amateur Investor portfolio holdings, by proportion %

Microsoft continues to grow its Azure cloud revenue and usage and gradually take market share from Amazon;s AWS.  It has become a leader in AI application for developers, and in workflows for information workers, using AI presented as a “copilot”.  These are reportedly increasing worker productivity significantly.  The addition of AI capabilities into the repertoire of Microsoft productivity products could produce a hockey stick increase in revenue.

Adobe is integrating generative AI capabilities (Adobe Firefly) into its flagship Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud applications and has created an AI-first online suite of applications in Adobe Express.  AI integration in Experience Cloud makes personalized and real time marketing more facile and efficient, exposing more, non-professional users to creativity and sophisticated digital marketing. The freemium Adobe Express suite too, introducers a greater number of non-professional creatives to digital creative applications. As the market of potential Adobe application users expands, Adobe management plans over time, to leverage use of generative AI into price increases according to the value added. As a leading digital marketing software provider for enterprises, Adobe enables companies to build custom AI large language models in which no alien copyrighted material is used, and the company branded content is for their exclusive use.  

Visa continues to expand its network into novel areas such as B2B payments (Visa Direct), cross border payments. Where potentially competing networks are used, such as RTP (such as Zelle), Visa is still required to provide services needed to bring the payment service up to expectations regarding security and other features.  Visa continues to partner with leading novel fintech companies to give them access to global markets in payments.

UNH continues to acquire relevant healthcare services companies and develop its value based care coverage and provider network, as it evolves as a diversified healthcare company, providing healthcare insurance,  healthcare services,  ancillary services, pharmacy benefits and digital information applications. UNH products are indispensable and must be paid for, whether by individuals, or more likely by third parties such as employers, unions, government. The diversified array of healthcare services combined with market dominating insurance creates network effects and cost advantages.

Mercado Libre continues to build its ecommerce ecosystem, with ecommerce, Mercado Libre; fintech: digital payment, Mercado Pago, credit, Mercado Credito; logistics, Mercado Envios; and advertising, Mercado Ads. The logistics network reaches from distribution centers to neighborhood stores that serve as service centers for delivery and returns, as well as for local SMB sellers supplying into the ecosystem. As delivery efficiency has resulted in speed and reliability greater than normally available otherwise, this is an important pillar of MELI competitive advantage, bringing sellers and buyers into the ecosystem, where each component is advantaged by combination with the other.

While we continue to pray for the world’s people in their difficulties, I feel these companies will continue to adapt and thrive, while enabling people to accomplish more.