1y(%)	3y (%)	5y (%)	10y (%)
Amateur Investor	43.2	8	21.2	20.1
VOO	26.33	9.97	15.66	12
Brk-b	15.46	15.43	12.76	11.64
VBIAX	17.58	3.73	9.61	7.73

January 4, 2024. Annualized Performance of Amateur Investor portfolio at 1y, 3y, 5y and 10y (%), as of the last trading day of 2023, December 29.  Performance is compared with those of various securities of interest.  The S&P500 broad US market index is represented by the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO).  Brkb-b is the affordable Class B share of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (Warren Buffet, Chairman, CEO and President).  The conservative, traditional 60/40 stock/bond allocation strategy is represented by the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBIAX).

1-3-2024. 2023 was an eventful year, including predictions of recession; the failure of China growth to happen after the Communist regime decided to loosen up on draconian covid related lock downs; a liquidity scare in the US related to devaluation of bank assets caused by rapid rise in treasury bond rates.  Portfolio performance was poor in the first quarter. In response, I found a new investment in a sector I had hitherto avoided, but decided to reallocate some funds into United Healthcare Group (UNH). While the reallocation, as it turned out, was poorly timed in the sense that the current holdings of V, MSFT ADBE subsequently recovered wonderfully. However, UNH has a strong competitive advantage and management culture has proven itself over time, generating a top flight total shareholder return since IPO in 1984.  I will describe my approach to UNH in a separate article. This involved an innovation of the eternal company criteria.

MSFT:	41%
UNH	21.5%
V	20%
ADBE	16.28%
MELI	1.17%
Cash	0.02%

Microsoft continues to grow its Azure cloud revenue and usage and gradually take market share from Amazon;s AWS.  It has become a leader in AI application for developers, and in workflows for information workers, using AI presented as a “copilot”.  These are reportedly increasing worker productivity significantly.  The addition of AI capabilities into the repertoire of Microsoft productivity products could produce a hockey stick increase in revenue.

Adobe is integrating generative AI capabilities (Adobe Firefly) into its flagship Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud applications and has created an AI-first online suite of applications in Adobe Express.  AI integration in Experience Cloud makes personalized and real time marketing more facile and efficient, exposing more, non-professional users to creativity and sophisticated digital marketing. The freemium Adobe Express suite too, introducers a greater number of non-professional creatives to digital creative applications. As the market of potential Adobe application users expands, Adobe management plans over time, to leverage use of generative AI into price increases according to the value added. As a leading digital marketing software provider for enterprises, Adobe enables companies to build custom AI large language models in which no alien copyrighted material is used, and the company branded content is for their exclusive use.  

Visa continues to expand its network into novel areas such as B2B payments (Visa Direct), cross border payments. Where potentially competing networks are used, such as RTP (such as Zelle), Visa is still required to provide services needed to bring the payment service up to expectations regarding security and other features.  Visa continues to partner with leading novel fintech companies to give them access to global markets in payments.

UNH continues to acquire relevant healthcare services companies and develop its value based care coverage and provider network, as it evolves as a diversified healthcare company, providing healthcare insurance,  healthcare services,  ancillary services, pharmacy benefits and digital information applications. UNH products are indispensable and must be paid for, whether by individuals, or more likely by third parties such as employers, unions, government. The diversified array of healthcare services combined with market dominating insurance creates network effects and cost advantages.

Mercado Libre continues to build its ecommerce ecosystem, with ecommerce, Mercado Libre; fintech: digital payment, Mercado Pago, credit, Mercado Credito; logistics, Mercado Envios; and advertising, Mercado Ads. The logistics network reaches from distribution centers to neighborhood stores that serve as service centers for delivery and returns, as well as for local SMB sellers supplying into the ecosystem. As delivery efficiency has resulted in speed and reliability greater than normally available otherwise, this is an important pillar of MELI competitive advantage, bringing sellers and buyers into the ecosystem, where each component is advantaged by combination with the other.

While we continue to pray for the world’s people in their difficulties, I feel these companies will continue to adapt and thrive, while enabling people to accomplish more.